🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Karlsruher SC and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC and Hertha BSC finished level at 2-2 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.37 xG and Hertha BSC 1.94 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Hertha BSC attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 27% | Draw 22% | Hertha BSC 51%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 71%, Hertha BSC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.48 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights