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Shock result as Karlsruher SC defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat Hannover 96 1-0 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.16 xG and Hannover 96 1.38 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hannover 96 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Hannover 96 attack 1.00 / defence 0.80, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 29% | Draw 31% | Hannover 96 40%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Karlsruher SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 72%, Hannover 96 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Hannover 96's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.51 PPG, Hannover 96 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights