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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out Karlsruher SC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Karlsruher SC 2-3 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.48 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.86 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.18 / defence 1.20 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 29% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 45%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 73%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.62 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights