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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Karlsruher SC edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karlsruher SC beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.96 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Karlsruher SC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.21 / defence 0.88 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 59% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 19%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 68%, 1. FC Magdeburg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.58 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights