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Stalemate at SSV Jahn Regensburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.76 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.32 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.65 / defence 0.96 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.08 / defence 0.77, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | Draw 32% | SC Paderborn 07 48%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, SC Paderborn 07 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights