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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Jahn Regensburg and Karlsruher SC finished level at 2-2 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.25 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karlsruher SC outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.76 / defence 0.81 against Karlsruher SC attack 1.00 / defence 1.12, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% | Draw 31% | Karlsruher SC 30%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 47%, Karlsruher SC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights