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SSV Jahn Regensburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hertha BSC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Jahn Regensburg beat Hertha BSC 2-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.76 xG and Hertha BSC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hertha BSC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.54 / defence 0.98 against Hertha BSC attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 17% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 55%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a SSV Jahn Regensburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52%, Hertha BSC 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights