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SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 22, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 xG and Hamburger SV 1.57 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.66 / defence 0.90 against Hamburger SV attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 49%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52%, Hamburger SV 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights