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SSV Jahn Regensburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Schalke 04.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Jahn Regensburg beat FC Schalke 04 2-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.10 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.20 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.87 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 32% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 37%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SSV Jahn Regensburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights