🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 31, as SSV Jahn Regensburg and Eintracht Braunschweig drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.30 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.03 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.78 / defence 0.80 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.03 / defence 1.13, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 30% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.81 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights