🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as SSV Jahn Regensburg defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SSV Jahn Regensburg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.97 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.63 / defence 0.87 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 29% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Nürnberg 37%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SSV Jahn Regensburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 46%, 1. FC Nürnberg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights