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Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Holstein Kiel and VfL Bochum drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.69 xG and VfL Bochum 1.22 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against VfL Bochum attack 0.83 / defence 1.32, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 48% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 28%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 67%, VfL Bochum 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 0.84 PPG, VfL Bochum 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights