🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Holstein Kiel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel and Preußen Münster finished level at 0-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.57 xG and Preußen Münster 1.16 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Preußen Münster landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against Preußen Münster attack 0.77 / defence 1.15, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 46% | Draw 27% | Preußen Münster 27%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 66%, Preußen Münster 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 0.87 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights