🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Holstein Kiel run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Karlsruher SC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel beat Karlsruher SC 3-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 0.87 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Karlsruher SC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.75 / defence 1.25 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 25% | Draw 28% | Karlsruher SC 47%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Holstein Kiel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 72%, Karlsruher SC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Karlsruher SC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights