Hertha BSC 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Hertha BSC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Hertha BSC have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2022, ended Hertha BSC 1–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 62% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 54% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hertha BSC surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.10 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.698 / defence 1.113 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.872 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.355. Hertha BSC's attack rating of 0.698 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 3 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 37.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 31% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.21 | Draw 3.66 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 50% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 31% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Hertha BSC 1.10 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.698 / def 1.113 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.872 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hertha BSC 5 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 31% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (0.70) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 3 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
31%
3.21
27%
3.66
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.42
1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.32 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 0.78 PPG on a 7W 8D 22L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 11W 12D 14L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 18 home games (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 4D 12L from their last 18 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.43 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 68%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
Hertha BSC (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 7W 8D 22L in their last 37 games (0.78 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.17 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Hertha BSC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hertha BSC won Hertha BSC 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 6, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 61%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hertha BSC) and 67% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hertha BSC's games and 78% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Hertha BSC's matches and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 83% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5-0 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.10 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.70 / defence 1.11 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 31% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 41%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Hertha BSC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 54%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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