Hertha BSC 2-3 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV meet at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion Berlin: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hamburger SV (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hertha BSC, 1.60 for Hamburger SV — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hamburger SV in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Hertha BSC 1W, Hamburger SV 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Hamburger SV — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 73% and Hamburger SV 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 75% | Hamburger SV 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.51 xG and Hamburger SV 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.964 / defence 1.182 | Hamburger SV attack 1.058 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.498. Data: 52 Hertha BSC games / 52 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 30% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 45%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Hamburger SV 2.22. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 70% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 30% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Hertha BSC 1.51 / Hamburger SV 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.964 / def 1.182 | Hamburger SV attack 1.058 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Hamburger SV xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Hertha BSC 2 - 3 Hamburger SV.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV part of?
Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 30% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV?
Record (5 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 3W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.06x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
30%
3.34
25%
3.99
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.38
1.87
Hamburger SV xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
15%
6.50
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
5%
21.73
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.87 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hertha BSC come into this having played 52 games, going 20W 13D 19L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.71 PPG from 52 outings (25W 14D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.71 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hertha BSC's home form reads 10W 7D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (8W 9D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.00 scored and 1.29 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 62%.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 20W 13D 19L in their last 52 games (1.40 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 25W 14D 13L in their last 52 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.48 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Hertha BSC 2-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Hertha BSC, 68% for Hamburger SV — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Hertha BSC and 64% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hertha BSC's games and 68% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Hertha BSC's matches and 64% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Hertha BSC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Hertha BSC 2-3 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.51 xG and Hamburger SV 1.87 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Hamburger SV attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 30% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 45%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 75%, Hamburger SV 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.