Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Wolfsburg make the trip to Olympiastadion to face Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Wolfsburg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.60 for VfL Wolfsburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, VfL Wolfsburg in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Hertha BSC 1W, VfL Wolfsburg 3W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 49% versus VfL Wolfsburg 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 49% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.76 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.097 / defence 0.923 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.215 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.533. VfL Wolfsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Hertha BSC games / 3 VfL Wolfsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 22% | VfL Wolfsburg 38%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.50 | Draw 4.55 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 22% | VfL Wolfsburg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Hertha BSC 1.76 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.097 / def 0.923 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.215 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.533 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.72
VfL Wolfsburg xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Olympiastadion.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 40% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 38% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (6 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 3W.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hertha BSC's attack rating (1.10) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (1.22x) against Hertha BSC's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
40%
2.53
22%
4.47
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.48
1.72
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.72 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hertha BSC come into this having played 37 games, going 17W 9D 11L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 0.89 PPG from 37 outings (8W 9D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hertha BSC's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.30 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Wolfsburg in 68%.
Defensively: Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 17W 9D 11L in their last 37 games (1.62 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 8W 9D 20L in their last 37 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.44 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfL Wolfsburg won 0-5 on 24 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
3
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 27 May 2023, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 44%, VfL Wolfsburg 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hertha BSC) and 67% (VfL Wolfsburg).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Hertha BSC's games and 78% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 67% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.