Hertha BSC 1-4 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host SV Elversberg at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hertha BSC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Olympiastadion Berlin this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Elversberg — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Elversberg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hertha BSC at 1.40 PPG versus SV Elversberg's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hertha BSC have won 1, SV Elversberg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–4 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 70% and SV Elversberg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 72% | SV Elversberg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.40 xG and SV Elversberg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.974 / defence 0.979 | SV Elversberg attack 0.833 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.468. Data: 40 Hertha BSC games / 40 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 38% | Draw 32% | SV Elversberg 29%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | SV Elversberg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 70% | SV Elversberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 38% | Draw 32% | SV Elversberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Hertha BSC 1.40 / SV Elversberg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.974 / def 0.979 | SV Elversberg attack 0.833 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
SV Elversberg xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Hertha BSC 1 - 4 SV Elversberg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg part of?
Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 38% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. SV Elversberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
38%
2.60
32%
3.09
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.59
1.20
SV Elversberg xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.20 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 16W 10D 14L from 40 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 17L across 40 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 1.45 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 9W 6D 5L from 20 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 6W 5D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.45 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; SV Elversberg in 60%.
Last 40 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
SV Elversberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 13W 10D 17L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or SV Elversberg away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.65 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Hertha BSC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
4
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SV Elversberg 0-3 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hertha BSC at 65%, SV Elversberg at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hertha BSC and 65% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hertha BSC's games and 65% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hertha BSC's matches and 65% of SV Elversberg's.
Do Hertha BSC and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat Hertha BSC 1-4 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.40 xG and SV Elversberg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against SV Elversberg attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 38% | Draw 32% | SV Elversberg 29%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 72%, SV Elversberg 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.45 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.