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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 1-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.80 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.26 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.92 / defence 1.35, drawn from 62/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 49% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 26%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 73%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hertha BSC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights