🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Hertha BSC host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Hertha BSC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Hertha BSC have posted 1W 4D 5L at Olympiastadion Berlin — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympiastadion Berlin this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Hertha BSC are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Hertha BSC have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 71% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 71% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.36 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.874 / defence 0.996 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.722 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.330. Data: 65 Hertha BSC games / 65 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.00. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hertha BSC at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Hertha BSC 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights