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SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hertha BSC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Paderborn 07 beat Hertha BSC 0-2 at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 0.90 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.09 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.76 / defence 0.95 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 30% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 39%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 54%, SC Paderborn 07 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hertha BSC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.26 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights