🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Hertha BSC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat Hertha BSC 2-3 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.51 xG and Hamburger SV 1.87 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV outscored their 1.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Hamburger SV attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 30% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 45%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 75%, Hamburger SV 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hertha BSC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Hamburger SV's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.40 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights