Hertha BSC 0-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Fortuna Düsseldorf travel to Olympiastadion Berlin to take on Hertha BSC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hertha BSC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion Berlin this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fortuna Düsseldorf — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fortuna Düsseldorf are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hertha BSC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hertha BSC have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 74% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 76% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.45 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.122 / defence 0.952 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.156 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.364. Data: 38 Hertha BSC games / 38 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 34% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 37%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 80% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 34% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Hertha BSC 1.45 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.122 / def 0.952 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.156 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hertha BSC 0 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 34% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.12x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.48
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
8%
13.00
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.50 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hertha BSC's recent record stands at 15W 10D 13L from 38 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hertha BSC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 8L across 38 games — 1.89 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hertha BSC have managed 9W 6D 4L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hertha BSC are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 2.08 scored and 1.16 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 21W 9D 8L in their last 38 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.74 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hertha BSC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Hertha BSC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hertha BSC's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 68%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Hertha BSC and 68% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hertha BSC's games and 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Hertha BSC's matches and 68% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Hertha BSC and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hertha BSC 0-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.45 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.16 / defence 0.84, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 34% | Draw 29% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 37%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 76%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.