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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Schalke 04 edge out Hertha BSC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Schalke 04 beat Hertha BSC 1-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.05 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.31 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.77 / defence 1.10 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.93 / defence 0.91, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 28% | Draw 31% | FC Schalke 04 41%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 72%, FC Schalke 04 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hertha BSC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FC Schalke 04's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.28 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights