🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 31, as Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.23 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.62 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 28% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 45%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 72%, 1. FC Magdeburg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hertha BSC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.36 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights