Hansa Rostock 2-1 VfL Osnabrück – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock host VfL Osnabrück at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Hansa Rostock — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 3 matches, VfL Osnabrück stand at 0W 1D 2L — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.33. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On current form, Hansa Rostock have the edge — a 1.87 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.33) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
VfL Osnabrück in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hansa Rostock 67% and VfL Osnabrück 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hansa Rostock 67% | VfL Osnabrück 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.51 xG and VfL Osnabrück 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.964 / defence 0.963 | VfL Osnabrück attack 0.820 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.355. Data: built from Hansa Rostock's last 37 games and VfL Osnabrück's last 3.
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 47% | Draw 26% | VfL Osnabrück 27%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.11 | Draw 3.89 | VfL Osnabrück 3.73. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and VfL Osnabrück's last 3 games) averaging 3.5 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hansa Rostock 40% (last 10 home games) | VfL Osnabrück 100% (last 3 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 47% | Draw 26% | VfL Osnabrück 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Hansa Rostock 1.51 / VfL Osnabrück 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.964 / def 0.963 | VfL Osnabrück attack 0.820 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.07
VfL Osnabrück xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück FAQs
What time does Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 1 VfL Osnabrück.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück part of?
Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 47% chance of winning, VfL Osnabrück a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against VfL Osnabrück's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Osnabrück's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hansa Rostock's last 37 games and VfL Osnabrück's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.89
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.58
1.07
VfL Osnabrück xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
6%
16.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.07 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L.
On the other side, VfL Osnabrück sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five.
Hansa Rostock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.67 PPG clear of VfL Osnabrück — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; VfL Osnabrück are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; VfL Osnabrück in 100%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
VfL Osnabrück
Early Season
Hansa Rostock (Home) vs VfL Osnabrück (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
VfL Osnabrück
Early Season
❓ Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück Form FAQs
What form are Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while VfL Osnabrück have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Hansa Rostock or VfL Osnabrück been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, VfL Osnabrück in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
0
VfL Osnabrück
Recent Meetings
❓ Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hansa Rostock have won 1, VfL Osnabrück have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2024: VfL Osnabrück 0-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
VfL Osnabrück are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hansa Rostock at 67%, VfL Osnabrück at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hansa Rostock and 67% for VfL Osnabrück. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / VfL Osnabrück away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hansa Rostock vs VfL Osnabrück Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hansa Rostock's games and 100% of VfL Osnabrück's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 67% of VfL Osnabrück's.
Do Hansa Rostock and VfL Osnabrück matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 67% of VfL Osnabrück's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out VfL Osnabrück 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat VfL Osnabrück 2-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.51 xG and VfL Osnabrück 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against VfL Osnabrück attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 47% | Draw 26% | VfL Osnabrück 27%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 67%, VfL Osnabrück 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
VfL Osnabrück's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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