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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hannover 96.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SV Elversberg beat Hannover 96 1-3 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 0.74 xG and SV Elversberg 0.92 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SV Elversberg outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.83 / defence 0.81 against SV Elversberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.61, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 27% | Draw 37% | SV Elversberg 37%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 55%, SV Elversberg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.53 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights