Hannover 96 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hannover 96 (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hannover 96 face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hannover 96 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hannover 96 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Hannover 96's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hannover 96, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hannover 96 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 61% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 56% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.32 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.858 / defence 0.883 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.667 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.307. Data: 66 Hannover 96 games / 66 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 48% | Draw 31% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.76. Hannover 96 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 48% | Draw 31% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Hannover 96 1.32 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.858 / def 0.883 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.667 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
0.77
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hannover 96 1 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 48% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (5 meetings): Hannover 96 3W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hannover 96's attack at 0.86x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.67x) against Hannover 96's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
48%
2.06
31%
3.22
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.09
0.77
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 0.77 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 26W 23D 17L from 66 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 27L across 66 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Hannover 96 against 1.29 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 16W 12D 5L from 33 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 8W 7D 18L across 33 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.38 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 26W 23D 17L in their last 66 games (1.53 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 16D 27L in their last 66 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.82 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hannover 96
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Hannover 96 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hannover 96) and 48% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 42% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Hannover 96's recent games and 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth finished level at 1-1 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.32 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.77 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.67 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 48% | Draw 31% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 56%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.53 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.