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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth finished level at 1-1 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.32 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.77 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.67 / defence 1.05, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 48% | Draw 31% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 56%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.53 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights