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Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.14 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.31 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 31% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 39%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 57%, SC Paderborn 07 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.54 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights