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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hannover 96 and Preußen Münster share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 and Preußen Münster finished level at 3-3 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.61 xG and Preußen Münster 0.85 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Preußen Münster outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Preußen Münster attack 0.75 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 54% | Draw 28% | Preußen Münster 18%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 55%, Preußen Münster 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights