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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hannover 96 and Preußen Münster share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 and Preußen Münster finished level at 2-2 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.47 xG and Preußen Münster 0.98 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Preußen Münster outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.99 / defence 0.77 against Preußen Münster attack 0.84 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 47% | Draw 30% | Preußen Münster 23%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 44%, Preußen Münster 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights