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Hannover 96 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.22 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.17 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 37% | Draw 28% | Arminia Bielefeld 35%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 67%, Arminia Bielefeld 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Hannover 96 scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Arminia Bielefeld managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights