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Hannover 96 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Magdeburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-1 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.27 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.86 / defence 0.85 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 39% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 42%, 1. FC Magdeburg 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.58 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights