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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out 1. FC Köln 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Köln 1-0 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.12 xG and 1. FC Köln 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.80 / defence 0.88, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 37% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Köln 30%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 56%, 1. FC Köln 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hannover 96's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.48 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights