Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Fortuna Düsseldorf (75%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fortuna Düsseldorf face SSV Jahn Regensburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host SSV Jahn Regensburg at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 15 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Fortuna Düsseldorf — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 0W 1D 9L from their last 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.
The head-to-head data gives Fortuna Düsseldorf an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 63% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%). Note also that SSV Jahn Regensburg surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Fortuna Düsseldorf recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.92 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.139 / defence 1.309 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.628 / defence 1.757. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.275. SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating of 1.757 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output up. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 1.309 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output up. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 59 games and SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 25.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 10%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 | Draw 6.41 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 10.31. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (75%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.92 / 1.05) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 10 away games) averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% (last 10 home games) | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.92 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.139 / def 1.309 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.628 / def 1.757 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
62%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg FAQs
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 75% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating (1.14) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (1.76), the model arrives at 2.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 59 games and SSV Jahn Regensburg's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
75%
1.34
16%
6.41
10%
10.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.97
1.05
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.41
16%
Draw
10.31
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
5%
18.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
1%
191.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.05 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 11W 8D 8L from 27 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
SSV Jahn Regensburg, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 17L across 27 games — 0.74 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Jahn Regensburg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 4W 4D 5L from their last 13 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record stands at 1W 1D 11L across their last 13 away games, a 0.31 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.67 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 30%.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Home) vs SSV Jahn Regensburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 11W 8D 8L in their last 27 games (1.52 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.23 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Düsseldorf have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Aug 2022, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 62% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 62% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SSV Jahn Regensburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 77% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.92 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.9 short of their projected output. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 / defence 1.31 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.63 / defence 1.76, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 10%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 63%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 26
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →