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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Form points away from home here. SC Paderborn 07's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 4 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and SC Paderborn 07 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.04 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.846 / defence 1.036 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.033 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.298. Data: 53 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 53 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 28% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 45%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 2.22. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.

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