Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Düsseldorf Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Paderborn 07 away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 60% of SC Paderborn 07's (from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2023, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–4 SC Paderborn 07 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 53% versus SC Paderborn 07 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | SC Paderborn 07 69%). Note also that SC Paderborn 07 surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Fortuna Düsseldorf recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.075 / defence 0.890 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.897 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.298. SC Paderborn 07's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output up. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 36 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | Draw 20% | SC Paderborn 07 18%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.61 | Draw 4.95 | SC Paderborn 07 5.67. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Fortuna Düsseldorf 36 games, SC Paderborn 07 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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