Fortuna Düsseldorf 5-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig make the trip to Merkur Spiel-Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record at Merkur Spiel-Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Eintracht Braunschweig managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fortuna Düsseldorf and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | Eintracht Braunschweig 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.877 / defence 1.123 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.772 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.544. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 48 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.57. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.877 / def 1.123 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.772 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.544 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 5 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 45% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (4 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 3W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.88x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.77x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.64
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.07
1.34
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
5%
20.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.34 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 24W 12D 12L from 48 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 14W 9D 25L across 48 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 4W 3D 17L across 24 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 24W 12D 12L in their last 48 games (1.75 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 14W 9D 25L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.50 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 5-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, Eintracht Braunschweig 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 67% (Eintracht Braunschweig). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 50% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 67% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Düsseldorf run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Eintracht Braunschweig 5-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.34 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.88 / defence 1.12 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.77 / defence 1.33, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, Eintracht Braunschweig 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.