Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Düsseldorf Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Düsseldorf Arena this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at Düsseldorf Arena than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 1–4 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 53% versus SC Paderborn 07 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | SC Paderborn 07 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.075 / defence 0.890 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.897 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.298. SC Paderborn 07 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 36 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | Draw 20% | SC Paderborn 07 18%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | SC Paderborn 07 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | SC Paderborn 07 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | Draw 20% | SC Paderborn 07 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.12 / SC Paderborn 07 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.075 / def 0.890 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.897 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.03
SC Paderborn 07 xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 62% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (4 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.95
18%
5.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.15
1.03
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
5.67
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
2%
47.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.03 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 36 games, going 18W 8D 10L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.56 PPG from 36 outings (16W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.72 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 12W 4D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Fortuna Düsseldorf are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Paderborn 07's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.92 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 16W 8D 12L in their last 36 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 2.22 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%, SC Paderborn 07 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 67% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 56% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.12 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.03 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | Draw 20% | SC Paderborn 07 18%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a SC Paderborn 07 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, SC Paderborn 07 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.72 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.