🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out Preußen Münster 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Preußen Münster 1-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.45 xG and Preußen Münster 1.18 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Preußen Münster landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Preußen Münster attack 0.76 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 42% | Draw 29% | Preußen Münster 29%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%, Preußen Münster 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Preußen Münster's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights