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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.92 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.05 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.9 short of their projected output. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 / defence 1.31 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.63 / defence 1.76, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 10%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 63%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights