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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hertha BSC beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.36 xG and Hertha BSC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.54 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Hertha BSC attack 1.29 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 40%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%, Hertha BSC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights