🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out Hertha BSC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hertha BSC 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.86 xG and Hertha BSC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.24 / defence 1.23 against Hertha BSC attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 36%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Hertha BSC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights