🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Hannover 96 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hannover 96 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.60 xG and Hannover 96 1.25 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Hannover 96 attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 45% | Draw 25% | Hannover 96 30%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hannover 96 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Hannover 96 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Hannover 96's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.51 PPG, Hannover 96 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights