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Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Braunschweig edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Braunschweig beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.39 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 40%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Eintracht Braunschweig 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights