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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dynamo Dresden.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Dynamo Dresden 3-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.31 xG and Dynamo Dresden 1.61 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Dynamo Dresden attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 29% | Draw 28% | Dynamo Dresden 42%, with Dynamo Dresden to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%, Dynamo Dresden 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.03 PPG, Dynamo Dresden 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights