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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Kaiserslautern share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Kaiserslautern finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.17 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.75 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.79 / defence 1.23 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 26% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 51%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.43 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights