FC St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VfL Wolfsburg (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC St. Pauli face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host VfL Wolfsburg at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfL Wolfsburg stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour VfL Wolfsburg — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 0, VfL Wolfsburg 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 60% and VfL Wolfsburg 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 58% | VfL Wolfsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.30 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.778 / defence 1.125 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.171 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.584. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 FC St. Pauli games / 4 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 23% | Draw 21% | VfL Wolfsburg 56%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | VfL Wolfsburg 1.79. The model has a clear lean to VfL Wolfsburg (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfL Wolfsburg at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 80% | VfL Wolfsburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 23% | Draw 21% | VfL Wolfsburg 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.30 / VfL Wolfsburg 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.778 / def 1.125 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.171 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.584 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
2.09
VfL Wolfsburg xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 23% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 56% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (4 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 2 | VfL Wolfsburg 2W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.78) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
23%
4.26
21%
4.76
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.38
2.09
VfL Wolfsburg xG
4.26
23%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
12%
8.05
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
3%
34.32
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 2.09 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 6W 11D 21L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 0.76 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 0.95 PPG from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 6W 4D 9L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.37 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 68%.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 11D 21L in their last 38 games (0.76 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Wolfsburg's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 0.95 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
2
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 5 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC St. Pauli at 68%, VfL Wolfsburg at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC St. Pauli and 63% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FC St. Pauli's games and 74% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 63% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do FC St. Pauli and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat VfL Wolfsburg 1-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.30 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 2.09 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VfL Wolfsburg landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 23% | Draw 21% | VfL Wolfsburg 56%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 58%, VfL Wolfsburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.76 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.