FC St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC St. Pauli haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SpVgg Greuther Fürth haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 0.80 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 3–2 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 56% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 56% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.45 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.931 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.389. Data: 0 FC St. Pauli games / 34 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
FC St. Pauli dominate the H2H record, yet SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.45 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.931 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.49
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 37% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (4 meetings): FC St. Pauli 2W | Draws 2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 0.85x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.93x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
37%
2.72
25%
4.03
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.94
1.49
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.49 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 6W 8D 20L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. FC St. Pauli haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 10W 7D 17L from 34 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.09 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (4W 5D 8L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 2D 11L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.35 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Pre-Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 8D 20L in their last 34 games (0.76 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 10W 7D 17L in their last 34 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.00 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 5 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 65%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC St. Pauli and 71% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 35% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of FC St. Pauli's games and 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 71% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth finished level at 1-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.45 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 37% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 56%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.76 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.